Ogranski and Kugler’s Power Transition Theory (1980)

Initially introduced by Ogranski in 1968, and further developed by Ogranski and Kugler (1980), the framework of Ogranski and Kugler’s Power Transition is based on the assumption that international order is hierarchically structured.

According to this framework there are countries that are satisfied with their position in a hierarchical structure of the world order, at the same time when certain countries are not satisfied. Accordingly, Ogranski and Kugler’s Power Transition theory states that counties that are not satisfied with their positions in hierarchical structure of international order may develop hegemonic ambitions and initiate international conflicts.

Moreover, Ogranski and Kugler (1980) divide the process power transition into the following three stages:

  1. The stage of potential power. This stage is associated with gaining access to reserves and competitive advantages, and increase in the level of their utilisation to fuel economic growth in the country. Nowadays, countries such as Indinesia and Singapore can be specified to be in the stage of potential power.
  2. The transitional stage is marked with the utilisation of newly gained sources of competitive advantage in an active and extensive manner to become a hegemonic state. China and India can be specified to be on transitional stage to hegemony.
  3. Power maturity is the stage where hegemonic decline is highly probable due to a range of reasons that primarily relate to the loss of competitive advantage in the global marketplace. The USA and the UK can be mentioned to illustrate the instances of power maturity.